Looking ahead to the Salary Cap

Well, my personal hero Larry Brooks has an article in the New York Post yesterday that says the salary cap is going up to around $51 million next year. Specifically, Ol' Larry says

Slap Shots has been told that the NHLPA is planning to exercise its right under the CBA to request that a full five-percent bump be built into next season's cap. If 2006-07 league revenues come it at $2.36B - Gary Bettman on Monday said he thought the number would be close to $2.4B - a five-percent bump would bring next season's upper limit to approximately $52M.

So with that said, let's look ahead and see exactly where the Caps stand next year in terms of salary commitments. All numbers are in millions.

First the players under contract:

Player	Salary
Kolzig	5.45
Ovechkin	3.8342
Pothier	2.5
Backstrom	2.4
Semin	1.3
Brashear	1.1
Clark	1.051
Pettinger	1
Clymer	.983333
Morrisonn	.9
Fehr	.894933
Green	.833
Johnson	.8125
Schultz	.763889
Bradley	.7
Gordon	.650
Yonkman's buyout	.075
Total Commitments	$25,247,855

So before we begin qualifying people, just by the players we have under contract that are most likely to play in Washington this upcoming year, we are committed to just over $25m.

The following is a list of Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) That need to be qualified before next season in order for the Caps to retain their rights. Not all of these players will sign their qualifying offers, some will be given modest raises above them (like Morrisonn and Pettinger last year). A qualifying offer is rather simple. For players making $1m and more, the qualifying offer is 100% of their current salary. For players making more than $650,000 but less than $1,000,000, the qualifying offer is 105% of their current salary, a 5% raise. For players making $650,000 or less, the qualifying offer is 110% of their current salary (a 10% raise).

The Caps list of restricted free agents, their salary for '06-'07, and what the qualifying offer would have to be.

Player	'06-'07 salary	Qualifying Offer
Eminger	.992912	1.0425576
Sutherby	.8	.84
Beech	.7	.735
Klepis	.681	.71505
Laich	.6061	.6671
Fleischmann	.602	.6622
Erskine	.575	.6325
Jurcina	.5	.55
Steckel	.5	.55
Novotny	.45	.495
Total Salary Committments		6.889408

Now of the RFA guys, not all of them will be back, I'm looking at Erskine and Beech. Others might spend time in the minors like Flash, Steckel, and Klepis. So I'm only going to figure Eminger, Sutherby, Laich, Jurcina, and Novotny into the count.

So by these numbers, I get the Caps around 29m spent before any of the RFAs sign any deals. Using the players I've counted, our lineup would look like

Forwards:
Ovechkin	Backstrom	Clark
Semin	Novotny	Fehr
Pettinger	Gordon	Sutherby
Brashear	Laich	Bradley
Spares: Clymer

Defensemen
Potheir	Morrisonn
Jurcina	Green
Schultz	Eminger

Goaltenders
Kolzig	Johnson

Not exactly the most intimidating lineup. If Brook's prediction holds true, then the cap would be $52 million, the floor would be around $36 million, and the line to receive revenue sharing would be around $43 million. Expect the Caps to approach the $43 million mark, should these facts hold true. The Caps currently stand at $28 million, so look for the Caps to add around $8-$15 million between now and September.